Rockies’ draft-and-development philosophy has serious flaws. Here’s why

Over the last decade no unit in baseball has been worse at getting impact out of the draft than the Rockies That s why on Sunday the Rockies are under pressure to turn their fortunes around with the No overall pick at All-Star Week festivities in Atlanta The Rockies total Wins Above Replacement from the draft since ranks last according to Baseball Reference Colorado has only had two picks in that period accumulate more than career bWAR second baseman Brendan Rodgers No overall in and center fielder Brenton Doyle fourth-round pick For an organization that s prided itself on advancing homegrown players it s been a while since they planted somebody in the big leagues who s an impact athlete noted MLB Pipeline reporter Jonathan Mayo Those statistics illustrate how the Rockies who have long been a draft-and-develop organization are headed to a third straight -loss season a campaign on pace to end with the largest part losses in modern MLB history Through poor free-agent signings and a lack of effective trades the club has made itself entirely dependent on being exceptional at drafting When the big-league band is struggling as much as it is it s going to be a multi-year process MLB Pipeline senior writer Jim Callis noted They have to get back to step one find talent in the draft and internationally And you seemingly have to look at trading particular of your better big-league players to refurbish the turnaround You have to start planning for years down the road A really long dark tunnel The missteps to get to this point have been a decade in the making Just as the Rockies were assembling a roster that produced consecutive playoff berths for the first time in franchise history in and the club had three glaring misses in the draft Between and Colorado selected a trio of right-handed pitchers in the first round who failed to yield a single big league win Mike Nikorak and Robert Tyler never made the majors while hard-throwing prep right-hander Riley Pint taken No overall in posted a ERA over five MLB appearances Pitcher Mike Nikorak from Stroudsgurg High School in Stroudsburg Pa points to his name on the board after being selected by the Colorado Rockies with the th selection at the MLB baseball draft Monday June in Secaucus N J It s a really long dark tunnel one MLB agent communicated The Denver Post on condition of anonymity because he necessities to maintain a relationship with the club It s an endless tunnel really especially with how they have gotten themselves into this situation by failing at their own blueprint that s previously led to chosen success drafting and progressing a competitive homegrown club The Rockies have picked in the top of the first round in of the last drafts including four top-four picks And in seven of those drafts they had multiple first-round picks Southpaw Ryan Rolison never made it as a starter and fellow first-rounder Grant Lavigne is now in independent ball The jury is still out on first baseman Michael Toglia No in outfielder Zac Veen No in catcher Drew Romo No in outfielder Benny Montgomery No in and right-hander Gabriel Hughes No in but the clock is ticking If you have three years in a row from to where you have a top- pick and if you commented Would you do it again with a sparse years hindsight and the answer is No that s not great Baseball America editor-in-chief JJ Cooper reported Mayo echoed Cooper with a touch of optimism We may have this conversation three years from now and first-rounder Charlie Condon s an All-Star first-rounder Chase Dollander s established himself with Hughes in the rotation first-round outfielders Jordan Beck and Sterlin Thompson are regular big-leaguers and Zac Veen and Drew Romo have made it Mayo revealed But I think at this point you would ve liked for selected of these guys to not be TBDs and to be regulars Slim margin for error Hunter Goodman a fourth-round pick has been a glimmer of draft success this season with the catcher making the NL All-Star crew as a reserve Hunter Goodman of the Colorado Rockies talks to Chase Dollander after he walked Jose Altuve of the Houston Astros during the third inning at Coors Field in Denver on Tuesday July Photo by AAron Ontiveroz The Denver Post But before that the last Rockies draft pick who made a high impact in the majors for the purposes of this story defined as a participant who accumulated career bWAR or made an All-Star organization with Colorado is southpaw Kyle Freeland the club s No overall selection in And in Colorado also hit on right-hander Jon Gray and third baseman Ryan McMahon But the draft is ultimately a crapshoot According to a Baseball America investigation the chances a first-round pitcher logs strikeouts is For first-round hitters the chances of hits is So even with a slew of misses the Rockies draft impact since is about on par with largest part of the division The Dodgers have had significantly more draft success than the rest of the NL West But Colorado is comparable to the Giants ahead of both the D-backs and Padres San Diego s high-profile prospect trades are a major factor and in-between flourishing small area franchises in Tampa and Milwaukee Rockies Draft Yield Comparison bWAR produced for drafting club since High-Impact Players Career WAR and or All-Star with club Rockies Dodgers Giants Diamondbacks Padres Brewers Rays That evidence suggests the bigger issue for the Rockies is an over-reliance on the draft The Rockies are the fifth-worst group in baseball when it comes to identifying talent according to a Baseball America survey of scouts Colorado could supplement its roster by mining the international area and making impact signings through free agency but neither avenue has been consistently prosperous That s made the margin for error in the draft very slim Where other clubs might have the financial tools where if they miss on something in the draft they can go out and spend the money ideally we re going to have somebody from within fill that need for us Rockies GM Bill Schmidt acknowledged Issues in analytics expansion The Rockies are also hindered by their lack of expenditure in analytics The Dodgers research and evolution department numbers about employees That s more than twice the R D staffing of the Rockies who according to the unit s front office directory have employees involved in analytics It remains one of the smallest R D departments in baseball Interim manager Warren Schaeffer who served as Triple-A Albuquerque s manager prior to his arrival at the big-league level acknowledged that analytics role in rise requirements to be a point of emphasis We can dependably get more forward-thinking Schaeffer disclosed That s a conversation for the offseason with a collaboration between a lot of different people higher up to think about If you re not invariably looking to get better in certain areas in every area I don t think you re doing what you need to be doing Colorado built a pitching lab in Scottsdale in and has had a video analytics coordinator at every level of the organization in contemporary years The Rockies also started using Trajekt Arc a pitching machine that simulates specific pitchers and pitches But a lack of analytical manpower remains a essential hurdle and turnover in top positions within the department hasn t helped In the Rockies hired Brian Jones previously the organization s video coordinator to be the research and advancement director despite Jones not having any experience in such a role beforehand Those staffing issues are in conjunction with Colorado being behind in overall hardware according to bullpen coach Dustin Garneau In the hardware aspect of it there are areas where we can invest more as far as Trackman and Hawk-Eye and stuff like that to where we can have a better understanding of where our players are at and find techniques to improve them Garneau noted So we aren t using the eye test so much So we want to have more device to track information for defense offense and pitching The MLB agent who described the club s future as a long dark tunnel added that the Rockies insularity contributes to their inability to keep up with current analytical trends You re not going to see the Rockies hire people at the tip of the spear in analytics the agent disclosed Colorado s scouting department has been led by the same faces for decades Schmidt has been with the club since senior director of scouting operations Marc Gustafson came aboard in and assistant GM of scouting Danny Montgomery was hired in That continuity is something to be proud of but I don t know if the flip side of that coin is a lack of fresh perspectives that s hurting the decision-making process and the advancement into deeper analytics Mayo declared With a shortage of top prospects and a lag in analytics the Rockies are having to rush various of their best prospects due to the squad s requirements at the major league level The Rockies have debuted nine players in a year after tying the franchise record with big league debuts It s a similar theme to what contributed to the White Sox s modern-record losses last season Guys are being allowed to develop in the big leagues and that s never been done ex-White Sox outfielder Tommy Pham notified ESPN last year as Chicago closed in on the record Judging by performance and the number of demotions back to the minors the bulk of those Rockies who debuted in and weren t ready even those like Toglia who was given a starting job This season the first baseman has a minus- WAR and leads baseball with a strikeout percentage If you look at Michael Toglia s minor-league performance there was nothing there that mentioned This is a guy who s established that he s ready to be a big-league regular ' Cooper disclosed That s the kind of thing where it feels like there s been a lot of half-measures Pressure on No pick in The Rockies last two first-round picks Condon and Dollander have shown early signs they could be part of the long-term answer Colorado will get an opportunity to snag another such sportsman when it picks No overall on Sunday Anti-taking measures ensure that Colorado cannot select higher than th in the draft which makes hitting on that top-four selection all the more significant Related Articles German Marquez shines as Rockies pull off gritty - win vs the Reds Former Rockies contestant DJ LeMahieu cut by Yankees with nearly million left on contract Rockies humbled - as red-hot Red Sox finish three-game sweep Rockies Mailbag Is Thad Levine the fix to Colorado s front office Rockies MLB mock draft tracker What national experts predict Colorado will do This year there s a trio of pitchers atop the draft rankings in LSU southpaw Kade Anderson Florida State southpaw Jamie Arnold and California prep right-hander Seth Hernandez Oklahoma prep infielder Ethan Halliday son of ex-Rockies star Matt Halliday is the draft s No -ranked player by both MLB Pipeline and Baseball America If the Nationals don t take Halliday at then the Rockies will have the opportunity to take him Mayo mentioned The two agents who spoke to The Post for this story think that stockpiling pitchers at the top of the draft as the Rockies have done lately is the best continued program of action for a association unable to sign prominent starters in free agency Schmidt remains steadfast in ignoring the outside noise and speculation about his job status at season s end That s for other people to decide he says while the Rockies try to take a small step toward getting back on track on Sunday And after the draft identifying and focusing on an organizational area of strength would be a good place to start As an organization you want to be able to say We feel like we re as good as anybody at X in enhancement ' Cooper explained You want to have something your organization is if not best-in-class top-tier in If you ask people in other organizations about the Rockies it s hard to say there s something the Rockies are clearly top-tier in right now 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